nepse technical analysis

NEPSE Analysis August 1st, 2023.


The financial markets are often characterized by volatility, and it’s not uncommon to witness periods of continued decline that can be frustrating and unnerving for investors and traders alike. However, amidst the panic and uncertainty, astute investors understand that such scenarios can present golden opportunities. In this blog post, we’ll explore how the Nepalese Stock Exchange (NEPSE) achieved a golden cross on 17 July 2023, analyze the current market trends, and discuss strategies for navigating the turbulence successfully.

Understanding the Golden Cross

The golden cross is a significant technical analysis event that occurs when the short-term moving average of an asset, typically the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), crosses above the long-term moving average, usually the 200-day EMA. This occurrence is often considered a bullish signal, indicating a potential upward trend in the market.

NEPSE’s golden cross on 17 July 2023 was a notable event that caught the attention of investors and traders. The 50 EMA crossing above the 200 EMA from below suggested that the market was primed for a potential uptrend.

nepse technical analysis

Consolidation and Retest Analysis of NEPSE

Following the golden cross, the market showed strength as it continued its upward trajectory without retesting the 200 EMA or the 50 EMA. However, on a recent trading day, the market retested the 50 EMA and experienced a reaction around the 2064.89 level.

Analysts foresee a high probability of consolidation between the 20 EMA (at 2117) and the 50 EMA before a potential retest of the 200 EMA (at 2033.05) in the coming week. The purpose of this consolidation phase is to build a solid base and gather momentum for the next leg up.

Potential for a New High

Taking a closer look at the market’s price action, there are indications that after the consolidation, the market might create a new leg for the next high. Analysts speculate that this new high could surpass the 2300 level. These insights are derived from the presence of a parallel channel in the figure, signalling the potential for a sustained bullish trend.

The Stochastic RSI Factor

One crucial aspect of technical analysis is the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI). Currently, it appears to be flatlining at the bottom area, suggesting that the market might be on the verge of reversing its course very soon. A reversal in the Stoch RSI can be an early indication of a shift in market sentiment, and astute investors are keen to monitor this indicator closely.

Prudent Investor Strategies

In times of market turbulence, it is essential for investors not to give in to panic and engage in impulsive selling. Instead, consider adopting more prudent strategies, such as buying more or averaging your position during dips. Astute investors understand that such periods are opportunities for the preparation of a bullish push into longer timeframes resistance levels.


Navigating through market downturns can be a challenging task for any investor or trader. However, it is crucial to keep a long-term perspective and be patient during these times. The golden cross achieved by NEPSE in July 2023 served as an encouraging sign of a potential uptrend. As the market continues to consolidate and possibly retest the 200 EMA, astute investors should remain vigilant and monitor indicators like the Stoch RSI for signs of a market reversal.

Remember, patience and diligence are the keys to successful investing and trading. Embrace market turbulence as a golden opportunity to fortify your investment strategies and prepare for potential long-term gains. So, rather than succumbing to panic, stay focused on your investment goals and embrace the journey of navigating the financial markets with confidence. Happy investing and trading!

Note: The analysis given above is purely based on the author’s perception and should not be considered investment and trading advice.

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